Circle (CRCL) Stock Plummets 68% Amid Lockup Expiry and Divergent Analyst Views
Circle's stock (CRCL) has collapsed 68% from its June peak of $298 to $82, pressured by the impending expiration of its 180-day lockup period this Friday. Mizuho Securities slashed its price target to $70, flagging risks from declining interest rates, stagnant USDC growth, and escalating distribution costs. Historical patterns suggest trouble: 58% of IPOs that outperformed pre-lockup underperformed afterward, with revenue-missing firms averaging 10% declines.
JPMorgan counters with an 'overweight' rating and $100 target, framing the selloff as a buying opportunity. While Circle beat Q3 earnings, analysts caution that Treasury-dependent revenue—primarily from USDC reserves—leaves it vulnerable to macro shifts. The lockup expiry could unleash insider selling, compounding volatility for the stablecoin issuer.
